Go forward by going back

Very interesting post from Chris Blattman. Allegience to armed forceds seems to be highest among the youngest of child soldiers.

child soldier allegiance

Chris is one of the best bloggers around and a darn fine economist. I read his work and blog with great interest.

…where news is plural:

DR Congo refugee camps ‘burned’

Congo-Kinshasa: Government Troops ‘On the Rampage’

Panic grips DRC as rebels advance on town of Goma

I’m skeptical that the UN has enough of forces in and around Goma to hold the china set together should fighting break loose in the city. I doubt Nkunda’s threat to take fighting to Kinshasa is credible. But should killings continue in refugee camps or if fighting opens up in Goma, this will not be an easy conflict to stop.

Any peace there was or could have been in eastern Congo looks to be in perilous jeopardy.

The Economist provided this recent comment from French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner:

We fear that huge, frightening massacres could start again in the eastern area and in Kivu.

Today’s news suggests that that prediction may be closer to coming true than hoped. From the Mail & Guardian:

A new bout of heavy fighting erupted between government and rebel forces on Wednesday in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)…The fighting was centred in an area about 30km from Goma, where thousands of civilians have been forced to flee amid the advance by Tutsi rebels.

UPDATE: Chaos seems to be the word of the day in Kivu. Jeffery Gettleman is reeling off some good copy on the unfolding events in Kivu. Here’s the quote that speaks the most volume:

“What can we do?”‘ said Kikaya Bin Karubi, a member of Congo’s Parliament. “We don’t have a national army. Our so-called army is a combination of different rebel militias, with a 100 from this group, a 100 from that group, and so on. They haven’t even trained together for a year. How do they stand a chance?”

Samantha at gorilla.cd provides and answer to the honorable MP’s question:

It’s total chaos in Goma. I am being told, through various phone calls and text messages, that the army have now laid down their weapons at Kibumba, 12 miles north of Goma, and are fleeing the rebels. In other words they have totally given up.

Zambians go to the polls on Thursday. This is an early election for them after the death of President Levy Mwanawasa in August. It looks to be a referendum of continuity versus change in the ruling party.

Zambia has been one of the most stable members of Central Africa. Frontrunners in this election are Rupiah Banda (Movement for Multiparty Democracy) and Michael Sata (Patriotic Front). Banda, the Vice President to Mwanawasa and current acting President, states that he will continue to pursue the policies of Mwanawasa, which have included inflation fighting measures and promotion of copper exports. Mwanwasa proved to be very popular among the international community. Banda has the support and backing of former presidents Kenneth Kaunda and Frederick Chiluba.

Sata, a former MMD party mmber who started PF in 2001, received 29.4% of the vote in 2006 and garners strong support from Lusaka Sata has developed something of a populist image, but this may be tamed if he is the victor. Lower copper prices, caution from international investors in emerging markets and a MMD-controlled parliament will, most likely, stiffle any attempts at major policy change. The Economist puts it rather bluntly and makes little attempt to hide its skepticism of Sata: 

Zambia relies less on foreign generosity than a few years ago, but a big chunk of its budget is still funded abroad; the tap would soon run dry if economic policy became populist.

Hakainde Hichilema, a third party candidate from the United Democratic Alliance is getting less attention despite the fact that he collected 25% of the vote in 2006 presidential elections.

Of course, there is the potential for a tumultuous couple of weeks following the election, considering some ballot concerns and bitter political rivalries between the PF and MMD.

Two stories in the New York TImes have me thinking on Marathons. I’m looking for a race in Southern or Eastern Africa and planning on a marathon in the US in early 2009. These stories have got me motivated. One, to race and, two, to se the film on the NYC Marathon.

That’s what MDC is starting to arguing for in Zimbabwe.

The MDC has called for an extraordinary summit of all southern African leaders but is now openly talking about new elections.

The current talks are preportedly stalled by an agrument over cabinet members. In reality, the talks can’t go forward when neither side trusts the other side and the head mediator has lost all credibility with one side:

The MDC has never had much confidence in Mr Mbeki as mediator and one source said that following these proposals they had informed the former South African president that he could “go to hell”.

Given that talks are stalled, a new round of elections may very well happen. The resurrection of PF Zapu and its cesession from Zanu PF would make elections much more appealing to MDC. Could this be on the horizon? MDC is certainly holding firm.

Dani Rodrik thinks so:

 I have a feeling that this will be the make-it-or-break-it week for emerging markets. I hope the IMF will make an announcement in time to make a difference.

Discussing the particular case of Africa, Shanta Devarajan concurs::

Of greater concern in Africa is the resurgence of inflation and macroeconomic imbalances in some countries…Although unrelated to the financial market crisis in the U.S. (but closely related to the food and fuel price increases of earlier this year), these developments will require early and decisive actions to avoid the situation getting worse.

Groups of a socialist bent in Africa seem to think that trouble is a stir on the continent/

Before leaving Vermont for Malawi, I shipped myself four boxes of books. Included in these boxes are some fine suggestions from Marginal Revolution readers. Many of the books I brough follwo the principles set our by Tyler. Namely, that they are “long, deep, divisible into smaller parts”.

Currently, I am working my way through Thomas Pakenham’s The Scramble for Africa:.  This is a lengthy and scrupulously researched account of the rise of colonialism in Africa during hte laste 19th Century and up to World War I. 

My reading on Part I, “The Open Path,” has been quite a pleasure. Here are some of the impressions that Part I left on me.

1. The book is heavily eurocentric. Not that this is a negative feature, given that the book is intended to discuss the political forces within Europe that drove the rapid influx of colonial potruing on the African continent. My preliminary reading, however, leaves me wishing for a slightly more prominent discussion of strategy and decision making on the African side. This only comes through when Pakenham discusses the Egyptians. Much of this is due to the lackof written histories and diaries from the African perspective. THe few quotes he does find are platinum. For example, Cetshwayo, King of the Zulu, made the following poetic statement two years prior to the Zulu victory at Isandlwana, 

I love the English. I am not Mpande’s son. I am the child of Queen Victoria. But I am also a king in my own country and must be treated as such. Somsteu [Theophilus Shepstone] must speak gently to me. I shall not hear dictation….I shall perish first.”

2. The book does a wonderful job of capturing the rivalries of the time. Boers vs. Zulu vs. British in South Africa. Henry Morton Stanley vs. Pierre de Brazza on the Congo. WIlliam Gladstone vs. Queen Victoria in the internal conflict over British imperialism.

3. Pakenham’s desciprion of the Battle of Majuba is the most gripping passage of the first 140 pages of the book. This makes sense, considering Pakenham did write the bible on The Boer War.

4. Has anyone written on the similarities of Leon Gambetta and Nicolas Sarkozy?

was equally a bête noire of the far Left and the far Right, and by common consent a prodigy, a man who defied all the rules…His father had been a humble Italian grocer, his mother a Gascon…At thirty-two he had risen…to instant fame during the ‘hours of misfortune’…Now…as Prime Minister, he decided to make his name with a policy of ‘vigour’.

5. The book includes some good economic analysis of events. Such as in the following quote:

Another explosive result of the diamond boom [in South Africa] was that African wages rose to the roof, so it seemed to Europeans…Most miners were African,, and paid a fraction of what white miners earned. Yet the shilling a day they were paid at the diggings seemed a fortune to them. They did not all spend it on beer or cheap spirits. Some of them used it to better themselves. After a few months they came back to the kraals, looking like white men, with breeches and shoes and – to protect themselves from attack – a breech-loading gun.

In the second year of the Ibrahim Prize, perhaps this is on the mind of all current and future African leaders. One has to hope that good will come of the prizes awarded to Joaquim Chissano (Ibrahim I) and Festus Mogae (Ibrahim II), but the greater hope is that the value of future good governance far outweighs the cost of the prize.

Elizabeth Dickinson writes on Foreign Policy’s blog that improving the image of African leaders is an equally valid argument for the prize.

This article from Elisabeth Rosenthal makes me wonder about the process by which farmers adopt new crops. In Malawi, where “Maize is Life,” there has been some adaption in crop production, but production of potatoes (called Irish potatoes) is limited and relative to maize, potatoes are definitely a luxury good.